Drew Grossklaus finds an amazing book at Goodwill…read his special report below!

While shopping at a local Goodwill I came across an interesting book, “Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom” by David Lereah.  The book was one of three prominently displayed to draw the shoppers’ eye to the book section.  On initial glance, my thought process immediately went to the year the book was published.  I quickly looked and found the publishing date of March, 2005.  I quickly flipped through the first pages of the book to get a sense of the premise on the timing of the real estate boom, curious to see thoughts on how long the “boom”  would last and thoughts on a possible downturn or adjustment.  The preface gave me a first glance into the author’s perspective of the future. 

“Today’s residential real estate makets are booming, and I and many other prominent housing economists believe they will most likely climb into the next decade.  Some in the media and elsewhere claim there is a housing bubble, and that it will eventually burst, similar to the stock market bubble debacle of 2000.  As I demonstrate throughout this book, their reasoning is flawed, a point I have driven home time and again on major business television networks like CNBC and CNN in recent years.”

I was enlightened that some of the media predicted the housing bubble.  The author was correct in how he viewed the economy in relation to the housing market

“The recent U.S. real estate boom has made money for an incredible number of households in America.  In fact, in 2001 and 2002, many economists (including me) claimed that real estate was the only sector propping up the econmy and keeping it from a full-blown free fall.”

Remember, the book was published in 2005 at the height of the real estate boom.  It really was an amazing time to be involved in real estate, whether you were a builder, developer, or home owner.  Lereah would miss the mark when writing about the boom continuing.

“Looking forward, expect more of the same–this real estate boom has got wings.  Don’t be fooled by any temporary pullback from the record-setting housing numbers of 2004.  I predict no major contraction in the housing markets in the forseeable future.  In other words, there is no national real estate bubble.”

Predictions even with solid data are still predictions.  You can’t fault Lereah for his predictions of the future as he also enlists others to drive home the point that the housing market would continue to grow.

“Last year, the chief economists of the five leading real estate organizations in the nation (yes, I was one of them)–Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, National Association of Homebuilders, National Association of Realtors, and America’s Community Bankers Association–provided ten-year housing projections that clearly forecast continued healthy expansion in the housing markets for the next decade.”

Although Lereah’s book in hindsight looks to have a few faults some important lessons can be derived.  It is difficult to predict the future of the housing market, for better of worse.  Many so-called experts now give claims that we are far from seeing the end of the current housing market.  I hope the next book to come out is “The Real Estate Swoon” and the predictions of continued downturn prove to be as false as those in “Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?”

P.S. Be sure and support your local Goodwill.  Sometimes your donation is another’s treasure and you may just find a treasure of your own.

Filed under: I'On Group, I'On Real Estate, Morris Square on December 30th, 2008